Market Reality-Check – North American session Market Wrap for December 12
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 12
When you thought things were going to be straightforward at least until NFP, you were wrong.
Fed speak can have immense effects after Rate Decisions, as seen with today's action.
Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid, the two dissenters from Wednesday's decision, expressed their views today, and it seems that markets may have caught somewhat of a cold.
Their remarks—highlighting that inflation remains too high while the labor market flashes no immediate warning signs—provide a fair argument against rushing into further cuts, at least until the situation deteriorates or clarity improves.
This echoes Chair Powell’s own comments during his speech, where he noted the Fed was "driving blind" due to data delays and suggested that rates are now entering "the high end of the neutral range."
When markets perceive barriers to the 2026 cutting cycle, the outlook for risk assets inevitably darkens.
Since the end of the morning session, markets across asset classes have bled, sapping the good mood from the post-cut rally.
The Dow Jones, which marked fresh all-time highs at the open, is now retesting its preceding highs—so there is still hope for a push higher if support holds.
Everything will now depend on next week, the final week of true action before year-end trading slows to a crawl.
Before we move to the key performance charts of the session, Trump made a very recent remark on his new favorite participant to replace Powell in May 2026.
Kevin Warsh, an ex-Fed Governor, could be a more reassuring alternative for the title as Wall Street expressed their discontent about the other Kevin (Hassett).
Cross-Assets Daily Performance
Markets had been strolling their way in the regular post-FOMC way with Gold and the Dow loving their day before things turned sour.
Look at the 10:00 A.M. huge swings in global assets. A good reminder to note underestimate Fed Speakers, particularly influential ones.
A short list of who to keep your eyes on: Waller, Williams, Goolsbee, Paulson, Cook, Bowman and of Course, Powell.
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
A very chaotic and confusing day in FX today, with an initial continuation of the US Dollar selloff which quickly stopped and reversed as Fed Speak brought back some equilibrium for the Greenback.
FX Traders might already be looking for the year to end. 2026 promises to be interesting with yields converging and surely a lot more of geopolitical madness.
A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions
The trading week ended, but Sunday carries heavy weight for APAC traders as major data releases will shape Monday's open.
Sunday evening will turn the eyes towards Asia:
- Japan's Tankan Survey (18:50 ET) is the main focus, with the Large Manufacturer's Index and Outlook expected to be slightly higher – One of the main pieces of information before the Bank of Japan's Rate Decision.
- This is followed by China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (21:00 ET). Retail Sales are expected to hold steady at 2.9% YoY, providing a crucial check on consumer health.
Monday's session kicks off the new week with a bang, focusing on inflation in Canada. The early European session features Eurozone Industrial Production (05:00 A.M. ET).
The North American Session will be dominated by central bank data:
- Canadian CPI (08:30 A.M. ET) is the most critical event of the day. The Core CPI YoY is expected at 2.9%, and a strong print may add to the pre-existing Hikes (hikes ?!) priced in the market since last Friday's Employment beat.
- Simultaneously, the US Empire State Manufacturing Index (08:30 A.M. ET) releases
Keep a close eye on Fed's Williams speech at 10:30 A.M. ET. One can never underestimate his influence.
Safe Trades and a restful weekend!
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